I am loving this season. Even though I hate Redemption Island, it doesn’t bother me as much because I think the impact it has on the strategy of the game with other loved ones left behind (if they still have them) is great. And that point was magnified this week with Laura M going to RI. Last week, they were going to vote out Laura B. But to Aras’ credit, he realized that the better play would be Laura M because she is better at puzzle challenges and would be the best person to eliminate Brad so that Monica would be more loyal to them. This is why Aras is a former winner (and my pick to win this year) because he’s thinking a few steps ahead without being too over the top. And that’s exactly what happened. Laura smokes the puzzle, John comes in second and Brad is gone. Strategy worked. And think about it…Aras would have never voted out Laura (I don’t think) if this wasn’t a Blood vs. Water scenario. Laura was obviously someone Aras could have in his back pocket should he need her later on. She was completely loyal to him. I think in a regular setting, she would still be on her tribe. She could have been Aras’ eyes and ears if someone was planning coup. She was another loyal vote. But this season, she was someone to take out the loved one of someone in his alliance to make that alliance member more loyal to Aras and crew. Seriously, Laura cannot catch a break! First she’s stuck with God awful Shambo then she’s collateral damage because of one specific move another player wants to make. Probst, if you’re reading this, and I know you are, have Laura Morett come back again!
I think Brad’s problem is he went balls to the walls massive of the strategy out of the gate. He didn’t need to be that bold that soon. I love the fact that he was playing hard (I’ll take that over people like Natalie and Ashley from the original RI season that just did whatever Rob told them to do and didn’t actually play the game.) But Brad played too hard, too early and that was his downfall. Aras is the opposite where he’s leading but he’s very self-aware and wants to make sure that he’s not “leading” too much or else it will get him voted out. And that’s exactly what Judas, I mean Tyson, is looking to do.
The coconut bandits (Tyson and Gervase…the alliance within the alliance) are already taking about taking out “King Aras.” They think he’ll be dangerous come merge time with Vytas still in the game. He’s too popular, too strong, too likable, and too smart to keep around. So Tyson thinks it’s time for him to go. And he isn’t wrong. Gervase doesn’t want to be looked at as someone not playing the game, so he’s willing to go along with it. Dumb and dumber. I like how Tyson later calls the newbies stupid when every time Tyson has been on this show, he’s made historically stupid moves. Pot meet kettle. I could never understand why people want to break up their alliance so early in the game. You have your alliance, trust it…for now. Just ask Kat how smart it is to panic and turn on your alliance early. I can see why Tyson and Gervase would panic because Rachel and Marissa are gone. Now so is Brad at Aras’ hands. But Katie and Vytas are still around and make Tina and Aras very dangerous. I get that. But I still think it’s too soon. I think even at the merge, you have enough people nervous about Aras that you can get him out right at the merge. Let’s look at who’s left:
- Laura B
I think Tina and Monica are pretty tight and Tina will pull Katie in. Tina seems to be tight with Aras and then by extension Vytas. So there’s five. Kat, Laura B, and Ciera would just be happy it’s not them. Hayden and Caleb would be on board with getting such a big threat out. So you have Kat, Laura, Ciera, Hayden, Caleb, Gervase, and Tyson all willing to vote Aras. That’s 7 vs. 5. You have the numbers. Now it’s soooooo easy for me to sit here and think this without really knowing the relationships on the island. But I think with that scenario, you could get Aras after the merge. Now with Kat gone, you would have to make sure one of your other “vote Aras out” people wouldn’t go with the best scenario being the Vytas is the next to go. Again, very easy for me to say…I know that. But I think Tyson is jumping the gun just a bit and putting a huge target on his back. And what he doesn’t realize is that Monica and Tina don’t like flip floppers. Based on what happened at their camp, they’ve made it perfectly clear that if they can’t trust you, you’re gone. If Tyson flips on Aras, he’s sealed his fate with them. And even though Caleb, Hayden, and Ciera might stick with him for now, they already know he’s a turn coat and know they can’t trust him so he’ll have to go. So while it’s a bold move, as usual for Tyson, it’s a stupid one. Not to mention, now with this tribe shake up, he is on a team with Gervase, Aras, Hayden, Caleb, and Ciera. I have a feeling Hayden, Caleb, and Ciera will stick together. So if Tyson gets Aras out and a merge doesn’t happen, he’s put himself and Gervase is a VERY weak position with being down in numbers in his new tribe. I’ll say it again…dumb. It’s why a guy like Tyson will never win Survivor. He’s too tunnel visioned. He doesn’t see the big picture or a few moves ahead. He gets an idea and there is no changing it. That’s why I would NEVER have an alliance with that man if I played with him.
Speaking of dumb, let’s talk about Kat! Kat’s annoyed at Monica. Why? Because she talks and strategizes too much. It’s all too much for Kat. So because of that, she has to go. The problem for Kat is, she on the outside looking in on an alliance and she has no idea. Please like Kat annoy me. Meaning, people who think they are so good at playing Survivor but really aren’t very good at all. She seems like a very nice person but the arrogance combined with cluelessness bug me. So she wants Monica gone and she goes right to Tina…her alliance member. Tina promptly tells Monica because she doesn’t like having wishy-washy alliance members around. They are dangerous and if she’s turning on Monica because she talks too much, what other reasons could she concoct to vote some one out later? So for Monica, Kat had to go. What I didn’t understand was Monica confronting her about this. What point does that serve other than to dime out Tina? Kat’s not going to tell you the truth. So why bother? I guess it would make sense if you didn’t believe the person who told you in the first place. But it came from Tina and they’re tight so in my opinion there was no need for her to go to Kat. I thought Kat was going to be the smoke screen until they got to tribal when it was pretty clear it was going to be her. Vytas had infiltrated their hearts and in a very short time proved more trustworthy than Kat. He’s also the only muscle they have so they should really keep him around for challenges. But it’s still dangerous. Aras is a very powerful player. I think Vytas was the best from his tribe. When they get together, I don’t think there is any way Aras or Vytas don’t win this game. And I think if it’s between Aras and Vytas, Vytas wins. One because he’s not a prior winner and two, there has been quite a bit of foreshadowing with Vytas making lots of claims of being inferior to Aras. What better way to beat him than on Survivor? That is not a spoiler (I LOATHE Survivor spoilers) it’s just a gut feeling. So while I understand them being pissed at Kat and wanting her gone it still doesn’t make sense because she was never really in your alliance to begin with. Granted she didn’t know that but you did. And Vytas is still a wild card with a very powerful ally on the other side. If you have read many of the recaps out there that talk about Tina, Aras, and Gervase having a pre-show alliance, then it would make sense for Vytas to stay and Tina to protect him. I think luckily for Tina, Kat made a very easy scapegoat and way to protect Vytas without showing her hand…if that’s indeed what’s going on. See this is why I love Survivor!!! I have no idea who’s really aligned with whom and I love it!!!!
One last thing before I go, Holy Major Faux Pas on the challenge! From what I understand, after Probst does the TV explanation of the challenge, the cameras then have to move into position to film the challenge. While that’s happening, Probst and the Challenge Manager go over the challenge in detail with each tribe again. He answers questions and reviews all the steps and even in some cases will show pictures of certain stages so they know what to look for. So it’s pretty clear what they have to do. For Tina and Laura to not come back with the cage, is unacceptable. It was unacceptable before I knew that bit of intel (thank you Dalton Ross from ew.com!) and now it’s even MORE preposterous after hearing that!!! The only way you could miss that is if you aren’t paying attention and that’s just wrong on so many levels. And they went out as a twosome. So not only did one person not pay attention, but BOTH didn’t! I would have kicked them off the tribe just for that. You have a 1 in 12 shot of winning a million dollars (not counting the yuck butts on RI.) How do you not pay attention to a challenge? It’s one thing when it’s individual immunity but it’s even worse when it’s a team challenge. No excuse at all.
In my first post I picked Aras as my winner with an honorable mention to brother Vytas. I would have picked Vytas outright but since a newbie has never won Survivor when there are veterans out there, I couldn’t pick Vytas. But so far, so good in my early prediction. Sorry guys if I just Jim Nantzed you.